Chris, I think Palin can be charitably called a nobody because no one’s known about her.

I guess I hear it differently – “unknown” would indicate, well, someone who no-one’s known about. “Nobody” sounds belittling to me. I dunno.

As for the rest of it, there’s probably a discussion to be had there, but I’m just too damn frustrated right now by the entire tenor of political discourse over the past few weeks to have the heart to get into it. I will be so glad when this is all over.

I guess I have underestimated one good thing that Palin brings to McCain’s campaign: youthful vigor. Unfortunately, John’s ejection and captivity in ‘Nam have left him physically stiff, so he looks older than he is. [Bob Dole suffered from this problem, too.] So Palin gives youth and vitality, and neutralizes the easy-to-make image of McCain and another old Washington hand as “old and out of touch”. But I just don’t see Palin resonating with anyone in the Obama demographic but conservatives that weren’t going to vote for him anyway. I get that it made sense for McCain to go for a pick under 60, but … well, I just have the feeling that there had to be other alternatives.

Fundamentally, I think McCain sees Palin, on the surface, as a younger, female version of himself. The more I find out about her, though, the less I think she really is that—she’s a McCain-sheen Trojan Horse for the continuing transformation of the Republicans into God’s Own Party. Sorry, but I don’t think God votes for either of these guys.

My background: my family is firmly right-wing Republican. I listened to lots of Rush Limbaugh growing up. (Fortunately for all of us we’ve mostly outgrown that phase.) I’ve voted (R) for every presidential election since I turned 18. Including GWB twice. Over the past few years, though, I’ve grown quite disenchanted with GWB and a lot of the Republican establishment. All this to say that I am, I imagine, pretty typical of the Republican base.

I have seriously been considering voting for Obama. I’m still suspicious of bigger government, I don’t like his position on abortion, I’m leery of his meteoric rise to prominence, but last week after hearing (and enjoying) his convention speech, I had pretty well decided it was time to give him a chance. And hey, if he then proceeds to totally screw everything up, at least with Democrats in power in the White House and Congress, they wouldn’t be able to blame the Republicans for it, right?

So your assumption #1, Geof, (“Assume the base won’t defect”) might just be faulty. Now, I’m not expecting that my parents will become Obama voters, but I have a feeling that I’m not alone, especially among the under-40 typically-Republican crowd.

Then came the Palin pick and last night’s speech. I don’t really wanna rehash the experience thing again. I did a little basic evaluation on my blog, and yeah, Palin is the least-qualified VP candidate of the past 50 years… but Obama is the least-qualified presidential candidate of the past 50 years. Take your pick.

What impressed me last night, though, was the sense that Palin’s reality, and how for me that contrasts with Obama’s distance. Obama is a fine orator, but down in my soul I love someone who will crack an aside about a hockey mom differing from a pit bull only by the lipstick.

I thought it was a brilliant stroke to bring the Levi kid down and embrace him as part of the family. When they all were on stage after the speech last night, you got the feeling that they were just laying themselves out, warts and all. Yep, here’s the unmarried pregnant daughter and the guy who got her that way. Yep, here’s the baby with Down’s Syndrome. This is us. Take it or leave it. And that will appeal to lots of people. No, not the cynical ones, but still, lots of people. And I just don’t get that vibe from Obama.

Now, I’m not saying she’s the answer to the world’s problems, or that she should be on top of the ticket instead of McCain, or that she won’t flop miserably at some point during the next two months and provoke a massive Obama landslide. But what I saw last night shows me that the woman’s got spunk, poise, and grace. Consider this piece of the base “energized”.

And one brief response to Adam’s comment above: why the need to call Palin a “nobody”? That’s the kind of hatefulness that just drives me batty this time of year.

Basically, the Daily Kos — and we must admit that because this is partisan oppo-research it is likely to be highly biased — has done a bunch of digging that makes it look like this nobody hasn’t been vetted. Period. Full stop. http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/30/201818/606

Either way, I think this means that the election will turn quite a bit on the debates. We could see a 1980-style post-debate blowout.