Comments on: Productive Out Percentage is Crap http://gfmorris.com/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/ The Life and Times of Geof F. Morris Thu, 11 Mar 2010 01:03:05 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Geof F. Morris http://gfmorris.com/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/comment-page-1/#comment-2529 Geof F. Morris Fri, 30 Apr 2004 12:23:44 +0000 http://ijsm.org/archives/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/#comment-2529 Okay, so I'm going to be digging up my copy of <em>Curve Ball</em> to give you after your finals are done. :) Okay, so I’m going to be digging up my copy of Curve Ball to give you after your finals are done. :)

]]> By: Rick http://gfmorris.com/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/comment-page-1/#comment-2528 Rick Fri, 30 Apr 2004 04:13:12 +0000 http://ijsm.org/archives/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/#comment-2528 I just think that you'd win more than you lose if you could consistently eek a run or two out of any given inning through use of all aspects of the game. Does that take away the chance of the big inning... sure. But if you're in a situation where you have good pitching (see Red Sox this year from everything I've heard), a few runs is all you need, so why gamble it all going for the big inning. This would relate very closely to the idea in football that defense coupled with an offense that doesn't make mistakes wins championships. But then again, I've always thought in baseball that extra-base hits are overrated. Everyone should just slap singles and let the runs start flowing in. I just think that you’d win more than you lose if you could consistently eek a run or two out of any given inning through use of all aspects of the game. Does that take away the chance of the big inning… sure. But if you’re in a situation where you have good pitching (see Red Sox this year from everything I’ve heard), a few runs is all you need, so why gamble it all going for the big inning. This would relate very closely to the idea in football that defense coupled with an offense that doesn’t make mistakes wins championships. But then again, I’ve always thought in baseball that extra-base hits are overrated. Everyone should just slap singles and let the runs start flowing in.

]]> By: Geof F. Morris http://gfmorris.com/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/comment-page-1/#comment-2527 Geof F. Morris Thu, 29 Apr 2004 22:12:10 +0000 http://ijsm.org/archives/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/#comment-2527 Well, but POP is either that or it's not, and I'm not sure that it is. Either their definition is poorly worded or it's a stupid statistic. Why do teams not play bunt-and-run? It's pretty simple: those plays waste outs. In baseball, you get three outs an inning: each is precious. Those plays can hurt the team and also can hurt the player's stats. Is there value in moving the guy over with a bunt? Sure! Is there more value in moving him over with a double? YES! You have to do a risk-reward analysis. Pitchers are asked to sacrifice a runner over because they aren't very likely to get a base hit, much less an extra-base hit. Better hitters are less likely to have the value of the sacrifice be higher, and as baseball has shrunken the strike zone, the advantage has gone to the batter. Well, but POP is either that or it’s not, and I’m not sure that it is. Either their definition is poorly worded or it’s a stupid statistic.

Why do teams not play bunt-and-run? It’s pretty simple: those plays waste outs. In baseball, you get three outs an inning: each is precious. Those plays can hurt the team and also can hurt the player’s stats. Is there value in moving the guy over with a bunt? Sure! Is there more value in moving him over with a double? YES!

You have to do a risk-reward analysis. Pitchers are asked to sacrifice a runner over because they aren’t very likely to get a base hit, much less an extra-base hit. Better hitters are less likely to have the value of the sacrifice be higher, and as baseball has shrunken the strike zone, the advantage has gone to the batter.

]]> By: Rick http://gfmorris.com/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/comment-page-1/#comment-2526 Rick Thu, 29 Apr 2004 22:04:19 +0000 http://ijsm.org/archives/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/#comment-2526 Ok. I just read the article (imagine that, read the actual source) and it appears that what we both would have liked to see is true. "Through Monday, the Tigers led the majors in POP, at .430, with 37 productive outs among 86 made in those situations." Why is it that the teams don't play a more bunt n' run style anymore? I remember when I first noticed baseball there were the guys like Henderson and Butler (Dodgers fan, so I've gotta get him) running all over the place. Is it just that the guys are so focused on the almighty dinger (and the steroids to make it happen) that they don't want to mess up their precious multi-million dollar bodies by running the bases and helping the team rather than their own stat sheet? Ok. I just read the article (imagine that, read the actual source) and it appears that what we both would have liked to see is true.

“Through Monday, the Tigers led the majors in POP, at .430, with 37 productive outs among 86 made in those situations.”

Why is it that the teams don’t play a more bunt n’ run style anymore? I remember when I first noticed baseball there were the guys like Henderson and Butler (Dodgers fan, so I’ve gotta get him) running all over the place. Is it just that the guys are so focused on the almighty dinger (and the steroids to make it happen) that they don’t want to mess up their precious multi-million dollar bodies by running the bases and helping the team rather than their own stat sheet?

]]> By: Geof F. Morris http://gfmorris.com/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/comment-page-1/#comment-2525 Geof F. Morris Thu, 29 Apr 2004 21:56:20 +0000 http://ijsm.org/archives/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/#comment-2525 Yeah, I am bored at work [it's a slow week, and my only job is to work on IT problems we're having, of which I can only control what happens here, and all the problems are in Houston], but this has been pissing me off ever since I read Olney spouting this crap in <em>ESPN The Magazine</em>'s Spring Training issue. Yeah, I am bored at work [it's a slow week, and my only job is to work on IT problems we're having, of which I can only control what happens here, and all the problems are in Houston], but this has been pissing me off ever since I read Olney spouting this crap in ESPN The Magazine’s Spring Training issue.

]]> By: Rick http://gfmorris.com/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/comment-page-1/#comment-2524 Rick Thu, 29 Apr 2004 21:52:50 +0000 http://ijsm.org/archives/2004/04/29/productive-out-percentage-is-crap/#comment-2524 First... you really are bored at work today. Secondly, I agree that it would make a LOT more sense if it were a POmade/POpotential number. I understand that the pitcher is asked to sacrifice on a regular basis (it just makes sense), but why do they get special consideration here? So this will be another stat for the NL pitchers that doesn't really apply to AL hitters (see all batting stats for the most part) These are the guys who decided out of the blue to start calling it a 'Walk-off Homer' rather than a 'Game-winning Homer'. Why? Because they're ESPN and they feel like they can (and they're mostly correct) set the way people watch and talk about sports. First… you really are bored at work today.

Secondly, I agree that it would make a LOT more sense if it were a POmade/POpotential number.

I understand that the pitcher is asked to sacrifice on a regular basis (it just makes sense), but why do they get special consideration here? So this will be another stat for the NL pitchers that doesn’t really apply to AL hitters (see all batting stats for the most part)

These are the guys who decided out of the blue to start calling it a ‘Walk-off Homer’ rather than a ‘Game-winning Homer’. Why? Because they’re ESPN and they feel like they can (and they’re mostly correct) set the way people watch and talk about sports.

]]>